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ga(create, UA-71360016-1, auto); ga(send, pageview);/script>link relstylesheet idet-core-unified-cached-inline-styles hrefhttps://tradernoble.com/wp-content/cache/et/314/et-core-unified-17258663937886.min.css onerroret_core_page_resource_fallback(this, true) onloadet_core_page_resource_fallback(this) />/head>body classpmpro-levels home page-template-default page page-id-314 pmpro-body-has-access et_pb_button_helper_class et_fixed_nav et_show_nav et_cover_background et_pb_gutter windows et_pb_gutters3 et_primary_nav_dropdown_animation_fade et_secondary_nav_dropdown_animation_fade et_pb_footer_columns3 et_header_style_left et_pb_pagebuilder_layout et_right_sidebar et_divi_theme chrome et_minified_js et_minified_css> div idpage-container> header idmain-header data-height-onload66> div classcontainer clearfix et_menu_container> div classlogo_container> span classlogo_helper>/span> a hrefhttps://tradernoble.com/> img srchttps://tradernoble.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/logo.png altTraderNoble idlogo data-height-percentage54 /> /a> /div> div idet-top-navigation data-height66 data-fixed-height40> nav idtop-menu-nav> ul idtop-menu classnav>li idmenu-item-423 classmenu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-423>a hrefhttps://tradernoble.com/index.php/about/>About/a>/li>li idmenu-item-5085 classmenu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-5085>a hrefhttps://tradernoble.com/index.php/education/>Education/a>/li>li idmenu-item-5052 classmenu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-5052>a hrefhttps://tradernoble.com/index.php/updates/>Updates/a>/li>li idmenu-item-5099 classmenu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-5099>a hrefhttps://tradernoble.com/index.php/testimonials/>Testimonials/a>/li>li idmenu-item-463 classmenu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-463>a hrefhttps://tradernoble.com/index.php/membership-account/>Membership/a>/li>li idmenu-item-512 classmenu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-512>a hrefhttps://tradernoble.com/wp-login.php>Log In/a>/li>/ul> /nav> div idet_top_search> span idet_search_icon>/span> /div> div idet_mobile_nav_menu> div classmobile_nav closed> span classselect_page>Select Page/span> span classmobile_menu_bar mobile_menu_bar_toggle>/span> /div> /div> /div> !-- #et-top-navigation --> /div> !-- .container --> div classet_search_outer> div classcontainer et_search_form_container> form rolesearch methodget classet-search-form actionhttps://tradernoble.com/> input typesearch classet-search-field placeholderSearch … value names titleSearch for: /> /form> span classet_close_search_field>/span> /div> /div> /header> !-- #main-header --> div idet-main-area> div idmain-content> article idpost-314 classpost-314 page type-page status-publish hentry pmpro-has-access> div classentry-content> div classet_pb_section et_pb_section_0 et_pb_with_background et_section_regular> div class et_pb_row et_pb_row_0> div classet_pb_column et_pb_column_1_2 et_pb_column_0> div idvideo-links classet_pb_text et_pb_module et_pb_bg_layout_light et_pb_text_align_left links et_pb_text_0> div classet_pb_text_inner> p>iframe srchttps://www.youtube.com/embed/oZGd5L9R5fc?rel0 width450 height253 frameborder0 allowfullscreenallowfullscreen>/iframe>/p> /div> /div> !-- .et_pb_text --> /div> !-- .et_pb_column -->div classet_pb_column et_pb_column_1_2 et_pb_column_1 et-last-child> div idhome-intro classet_pb_text et_pb_module et_pb_bg_layout_dark et_pb_text_align_left et_pb_text_1> div classet_pb_text_inner> h1>Futures Trading Education/h1>div stylefont-size: 18px; margin-top: 20px;>p>i classfa fa-bar-chart>/i> Learn to trade profitably forever/p>p>i classfa fa-eur>/i>i classfa fa-gbp>/i>i classfa fa-usd>/i> Averages 2,000 points monthly/p>/div> /div> /div> !-- .et_pb_text -->div classet_pb_promo et_pb_module et_pb_bg_layout_light et_pb_text_align_left signup et_pb_cta_0 et_pb_no_bg> div classet_pb_promo_description> /div> div classet_pb_button_wrapper>a classet_pb_promo_button et_pb_button hrefhttp://tradernoble.com/index.php/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level3>7 Day Trial »/a>/div> /div> /div> !-- .et_pb_column --> /div> !-- .et_pb_row -->div class et_pb_row et_pb_row_1> div classet_pb_column et_pb_column_4_4 et_pb_column_2 et-last-child> div classet_pb_testimonial et_pb_testimonial_0 et_pb_icon_off et_pb_testimonial_no_image et_pb_module et_pb_bg_layout_dark et_pb_text_align_center et_pb_testimonial_no_bg clearfix> div classet_pb_testimonial_description> div classet_pb_testimonial_description_inner> p>“Since I signed up to your Platinum service in December 2015, my trading has improved immeasurably. Your knowledge, insight and experience in the markets is quite incredible, with a 80% plus strike rate across nine markets. The daily commentary alone is worth the money, let alone taking the trades and I cannot recommend your platinum service enough for anyone who wants to avoid the daily pitfalls of financial trading. Keep it up and I look forward to many years reading and trading on your service.”/p> strong classet_pb_testimonial_author>Don Morrissey/strong> p classet_pb_testimonial_meta>/p> /div> !-- .et_pb_testimonial_description_inner --> /div> !-- .et_pb_testimonial_description --> /div> !-- .et_pb_testimonial --> /div> !-- .et_pb_column --> /div> !-- .et_pb_row --> /div> !-- .et_pb_section -->div classet_pb_section et_pb_section_1 et_section_regular> div class et_pb_row et_pb_row_2 et_pb_row_fullwidth> div classet_pb_column et_pb_column_1_2 et_pb_column_3> div classet_pb_text et_pb_module et_pb_bg_layout_light et_pb_text_align_left update et_pb_text_2> div classet_pb_text_inner> h2>DAILY span stylecolor: #007dc0;>UPDATE/span>/h2> /div> /div> !-- .et_pb_text -->div classet_pb_posts et_pb_module et_pb_bg_layout_light et_pb_blog_0> div classet_pb_ajax_pagination_container> article idpost-12251 classet_pb_post clearfix et_pb_no_thumb post-12251 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-premium pmpro-level-required pmpro-level-1 pmpro-level-2 pmpro-level-3 pmpro-no-access> h2 classentry-title>a hrefhttps://tradernoble.com/index.php/opinion-monday-9-september-2024/>Opinion – Monday 9 September 2024/a>/h2> div classpost-content>p>Equity Markets closed lower on Friday, led by the 2.7% fall in the NASDAQ 100, weighed on by souring risk sentiment through the afternoon despite initial gains on the US jobs report, which failed to decisively guide towards the magnitude of the September FOMC rate cut. On the data, the headline rose 142k, beneath the expected 160k, while the figure was revised down to 89k from 114k. The Unemployment Rate expectedly fell back down to 4.2% from 4.3%, while the annual pace of hourly earnings quickened to 3.8%. Following the data, influential Fed figures Waller and Williams were on the wires, and while there were notable comments from both (more below). The Wall Street Journal’s Timiraos noted that both of them support a 25bps September rate cut. Money markets are currently pricing in a circa 28% chance of a 50bps cut in September but peaked at around 64% on Friday after Waller’s initial remarks whereby he said he will be an advocate for front-loading rate cuts if that is appropriate. Nonetheless, after the jobs data the Dollar, along with other haven currencies, rose as markets pared expectations of an aggressive Fed rate cut in September following the Fed commentary, which sent equities and commodity prices tumbling. As such, the Dollar ended the day with gains with the Japanese Yen outperforming and Antipodeans lagging. Lastly, T-notes bull steepened, with the short end benefitting the most post-NFP, as 2s/10s closed ‘’Un-inverted’’ for the first time since July 2022. For the record, all sectors closed in the red with mega-cap sectors Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology the laggards amid notable weakness in tech space, highlighted by Nvidia (NVDA) seeing losses of roughly 3.5%, and the semiconductor ETF SOXX lower by ~4%. Looking ahead, US CPI is the key data release this week, with attention thereafter on the 16th Sept. FOMC meeting, whereby the Fed went into blackout from Friday evening. The US jobs report for August came in at 142k vs the prior revised lower 89k and beneath the expected 160k. Within the report, the unemployment rate ticked back lower to 4.2% from 4.3%, as expected, while the participation rate held at 62.7%. On the wages footing, average earnings rose 0.4% M/M (exp. 0.3%) with July’s figure revised to -0.1% from +0.2%, while the annual rate was 3.8% Y/Y (prev. 3.6%, exp. 3.7%). This job report was of paramount importance to guide markets towards the magnitude of the Federal Reserve rate cut in the September 18th meeting. However, the report has not decisively cleared that, highlighted by WSJ’s Timiraos posting on X: “There was a chance the jobs report would provide an obvious signal on the size of the first cut, and futures-market pricing would move to 90% right away for either 25bps or for 50bps. Instead, this report does not neatly resolve that and the pricing is at 50-50.” The Fed whisperer adds, “The headline figures were not bad enough to make 50 the base case but, in light of the revisions, it was not good enough to convincingly and cleanly douse speculation on a larger cut.” Among analysts there remains a split view, indicated by ING noting “lead indicators suggest further weakness lies ahead, and we believe the Fed will go for a 50bp move, but it is a close call”. On the other hand, Oxford Economics “don’t think the report was weak enough to warrant more than a 25bp rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s meeting later this month.” However, the consultancy adds, cooler labour market conditions have probably increased the odds that the Fed cuts rates more than 50bps this year by adding a rate cut at the November meeting .Fed Member Williams said he is ready to start the process of rate cuts and monetary policy can be moved to a more neutral stance depending on data. Williams noted that risks to the outlook include further weakening in the jobs market, and the unemployment rate still low despite the rise. Looking ahead, the NY Fed President said the US GDP is likely +2-2.5% for this year, and the unemployment rate is likely around 4.25% by year-end. Note, in the Fed’s June SEPs it was 4.0%, but of course, we are due new projections at the September 16th meeting. Williams added that in the longer run expects unemployment to settle around 3.75% (in Fed’s June SEPs it was 4.2%). Furthermore, the NY Fed President expects more inflation cooling, and inflation at 2.25% this year and near 2% next year. When asked about the US labour report on Friday, Williams said he would like to see the data more closely, and jobs data is consistent with a cooling economy and reiterated that the Fed continues to look at the totality of data. On rate cuts, he said the path will be driven by the data, once again highlighting data dependency. The influential Willaims added he is not prepared to say how big the first cut should be, and he does not have a personal view on 25bps or 50bps yet. Following Williams, WSJ’s Timiraos wrote “Williams’s prepared remarks don’t make any effort to lay the groundwork for a 50 basis point cut”, and then after his Q&A added that “Williams seems fine with 25”. The WSJ writer added, when “pressed over why the Fed is not in a bigger hurry to get rates down to neutral, he said that monetary policy is “well positioned” and “on a path” that can prevent undesirable weakness in the labour market.” Meanwhile, Fed Member Waller speaking for the first time in a while, believes maintaining the economy’s forward momentum means the time has come to begin reducing policy rate at the upcoming meeting. On the dovish side, Waller said he will be an advocate for front-loading rate cuts if that is appropriate, but balanced this out by noting data in the past three days indicates the labour market is softening but not deteriorating, and this judgment is important to the upcoming policy decision. Further on data, Waller added if future data shows significant deterioration in the labour market, the Fed can act quickly and forcefully. On the economy, Waller does not believe it is in a recession or necessarily headed for one soon. Waller added that the current batch of data no longer requires patience, it requires action, and that the August jobs report and other recent data reinforce the view that there has been continued moderation in the labour market. Following the Governor’s remarks, WSJ’s Timiraos was back on the wires noting Waller’s speech does not explicitly say “25” or “50” but it leans into endorsing a 25 bps cut to start, explicitly reserving the option to go faster “as appropriate” if “new data” show more deterioration. In the Q&A section, Waller said forecasts could be wrong, and must be nimble on policy as data comes in. Last Wednesday the Bank of Canada cut rates as expected to 4.25%, marking its third consecutive 25bp rate cut. The BoC noted the cut was due to continued easing in broad inflationary pressures, repeating that excess supply in the economy continues to put downward pressure on inflation, while price increases in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up. Looking ahead, it maintained guidance that “Monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook.”, noting it is carefully assessing the opposing forces of inflation. The rate cut and statement was largely as expected and providing inflation continues to ease, and the price increases in shelter and some other services do not see inflation reverse higher, the BoC look set to continue on their easing path. The market currently fully prices in 50bps of easing through year-end, implying two 25bp rate cuts in October and December. BoC Governor Macklem, in the opening remarks, warned that inflation may bump up later in the year as base effects unwind, and that there is a risk that the upward forces on inflation could be stronger than expected. In the Q&A however he did note this was not their base case. Macklem also repeated that if inflation continues to ease broadly in line with their July forecast, it is reasonable to expect further cuts in their policy rate. The Governor also acknowledged that as inflation gets closer to target, they want to see economic growth pick up to absorb the slack in the economy so inflation returns sustainably to the 2% target. He also noted that the BoC cares as much about CPI below 2%, as they do above, a nod to the fact that they will aim to not let inflation sink too far beneath 2%. Macklem acknowledged that in the meeting, there was a strong consensus for a 25bps move, but alternative scenarios were discussed, including slowing the pace of cuts and also a 50bps move. He stated that if the economy were to be weaker than expected, a cut larger than 25bps would be appropriate. Elsewhere, Oil is trading 9% lower from where I marked prices last week while Gold has traded in a narrow range, closing 0.6% lower in the same timeframe./p>p>strong>To mark my 3075sup>th/sup> issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on /strong>a hrefmailto:bryan@tradernoble.com>strong>bryan@tradernoble.com/strong>/a>strong> for details/strong>/p>p>strong>For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1017 points last week and is now ahead by 1017 points for September having ended August with a loss of 301 points after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking /strong>/p>div classpmpro_content_message>This content is for Free Members or higher./p>p>Already Have an Account? a hrefhttp://tradernoble.com/wp-login.php>Log In/a>/p>p>New to TraderNoble? a hrefhttp://tradernoble.com/wp-login.php?actionregister>Register/a>/div>/div> /article> !-- .et_pb_post --> /div> /div> !-- .et_pb_posts -->div classet_pb_blog_grid_wrapper>div classet_pb_blog_grid clearfix et_pb_module et_pb_bg_layout_light et_pb_blog_1> div classet_pb_ajax_pagination_container> div classet_pb_salvattore_content data-columns> article idpost-12247 classet_pb_post clearfix et_pb_no_thumb post-12247 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-premium pmpro-level-required pmpro-level-1 pmpro-level-2 pmpro-level-3 pmpro-no-access> h2 classentry-title>a hrefhttps://tradernoble.com/index.php/opinion-thursday-29-august-2024/>Opinion – Thursday 29 August 2024/a>/h2> div classpost-content>p>Equity Markets closed lower on Wednesday, but off troughs, with weakness led by the NASDAQ and semiconductor names ahead of Nvidia (NVDA) earnings after-hours. Also adding to the downside was the further slump in Super Micro (SMCI) after it delayed the release of its.../p>/div> /article> !-- .et_pb_post --> article idpost-12245 classet_pb_post clearfix et_pb_no_thumb post-12245 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-premium pmpro-level-required pmpro-level-1 pmpro-level-2 pmpro-level-3 pmpro-no-access> h2 classentry-title>a hrefhttps://tradernoble.com/index.php/opinion-wednesday-28-august-2024/>Opinion – Wednesday 28 August 2024/a>/h2> div classpost-content>p>U.S. Equity Markets closed mixed on Tuesday following a trading session that witnessed of two-way price action. Both the S&P and NDX closed higher while the RUSSELL 2000 was the underperformer, closing lower by 0.7%, in a day of thin headline newsflow as participants.../p>/div> /article> !-- .et_pb_post --> /div>!-- .et_pb_salvattore_content --> /div> /div> !-- .et_pb_posts -->/div> /div> !-- .et_pb_column -->div classet_pb_column et_pb_column_1_2 et_pb_column_4 et-last-child> div idmember classet_pb_text et_pb_module et_pb_bg_layout_light et_pb_text_align_center et_pb_text_3> div classet_pb_text_inner> h2>BECOME A span stylecolor: #e43131;>MEMBER/span>/h2>p>Premium Membership ensures that you receive Daily Educational Updates which are issued by 9:30am GMT each morning. 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