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HTTP/1.1 200 OKAccept-Ranges: bytesAge: 0Cache-Control: public,max-age0,must-revalidateCache-Status: Netlify Edge; fwdmissContent-Length: 52565Content-Type: text/html; charsetUTF-8Date: Sun, 02 Nov 2025 11:45:18 GMTEtag: 0a6764022805c70ab165406c02690f28-sslServer: NetlifyStrict-Transport-Security: max-age31536000X-Nf-Request-Id: 01K9265MXXATPF7E1S59QMJQGE !DOCTYPE html>html xmlnshttp://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml langen xml:langen>head>meta charsetutf-8>meta namegenerator contentquarto-1.7.30>meta nameviewport contentwidthdevice-width, initial-scale1.0, user-scalableyes>title>Dom Di Francesco, PhD, CEng – All Your Bayes/title>style>code{white-space: pre-wrap;}span.smallcaps{font-variant: small-caps;}div.columns{display: flex; gap: min(4vw, 1.5em);}div.column{flex: auto; overflow-x: auto;}div.hanging-indent{margin-left: 1.5em; text-indent: -1.5em;}ul.task-list{list-style: none;}ul.task-list li inputtypecheckbox { width: 0.8em; margin: 0 0.8em 0.2em -1em; /* quarto-specific, see https://github.com/quarto-dev/quarto-cli/issues/4556 */ vertical-align: middle;}/style>script srcsite_libs/quarto-nav/quarto-nav.js>/script>script srcsite_libs/quarto-nav/headroom.min.js>/script>script srcsite_libs/clipboard/clipboard.min.js>/script>script srcsite_libs/quarto-search/autocomplete.umd.js>/script>script srcsite_libs/quarto-search/fuse.min.js>/script>script srcsite_libs/quarto-search/quarto-search.js>/script>meta namequarto:offset content./>script srcsite_libs/quarto-listing/list.min.js>/script>script srcsite_libs/quarto-listing/quarto-listing.js>/script>script srcsite_libs/cookie-consent/cookie-consent.js>/script>link hrefsite_libs/cookie-consent/cookie-consent.css relstylesheet>script srcsite_libs/quarto-html/quarto.js typemodule>/script>script srcsite_libs/quarto-html/tabsets/tabsets.js typemodule>/script>script srcsite_libs/quarto-html/popper.min.js>/script>script srcsite_libs/quarto-html/tippy.umd.min.js>/script>script srcsite_libs/quarto-html/anchor.min.js>/script>link hrefsite_libs/quarto-html/tippy.css relstylesheet>link hrefsite_libs/quarto-html/quarto-syntax-highlighting-de070a7b0ab54f8780927367ac907214.css relstylesheet classquarto-color-scheme idquarto-text-highlighting-styles>link hrefsite_libs/quarto-html/quarto-syntax-highlighting-dark-2b3e328b71be8d25427581baeb23079b.css relstylesheet classquarto-color-scheme quarto-color-alternate idquarto-text-highlighting-styles>link hrefsite_libs/quarto-html/quarto-syntax-highlighting-de070a7b0ab54f8780927367ac907214.css relstylesheet classquarto-color-scheme-extra idquarto-text-highlighting-styles>script srcsite_libs/bootstrap/bootstrap.min.js>/script>link hrefsite_libs/bootstrap/bootstrap-icons.css relstylesheet>link hrefsite_libs/bootstrap/bootstrap-6bdd2aebeb936dcddaa5f935a5de481c.min.css relstylesheet append-hashtrue classquarto-color-scheme idquarto-bootstrap data-modelight>link hrefsite_libs/bootstrap/bootstrap-dark-ccd81253fefb92e9cd3f9eb5b5d87b54.min.css relstylesheet append-hashtrue classquarto-color-scheme quarto-color-alternate idquarto-bootstrap data-modedark>link hrefsite_libs/bootstrap/bootstrap-6bdd2aebeb936dcddaa5f935a5de481c.min.css relstylesheet append-hashtrue classquarto-color-scheme-extra idquarto-bootstrap data-modelight>script idquarto-search-options typeapplication/json>{ location: navbar, copy-button: false, collapse-after: 3, panel-placement: end, type: overlay, limit: 50, keyboard-shortcut: f, /, s , show-item-context: false, language: { search-no-results-text: No results, search-matching-documents-text: matching documents, search-copy-link-title: Copy link to search, search-hide-matches-text: Hide additional matches, search-more-match-text: more match in this document, search-more-matches-text: more matches in this document, search-clear-button-title: Clear, search-text-placeholder: , search-detached-cancel-button-title: Cancel, search-submit-button-title: Submit, search-label: Search }}/script>script> window.document.addEventListener(DOMContentLoaded, function (_event) { const listingTargetEl window.document.querySelector(#listing-listing .list); 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document.querySelector(link#quarto-text-highlighting-styles.quarto-color-scheme-extra).rel disabled-stylesheet; document.querySelector(link#quarto-bootstrap.quarto-color-scheme-extra).rel disabled-stylesheet; let localAlternateSentinel darkModeDefault ? alternate : default; // Dark / light mode switch window.quartoToggleColorScheme () > { // Read the current dark / light value let toAlternate !hasAlternateSentinel(); toggleColorMode(toAlternate); setStyleSentinel(toAlternate); toggleGiscusIfUsed(toAlternate, darkModeDefault); window.dispatchEvent(new Event(resize)); }; // Switch to dark mode if need be if (hasAlternateSentinel()) { toggleColorMode(true); } else { toggleColorMode(false); } /script>div idquarto-search-results>/div> header idquarto-header classheadroom fixed-top quarto-banner> nav classnavbar navbar-expand-lg data-bs-themedark> div classnavbar-container container-fluid> div classnavbar-brand-container mx-auto> a classnavbar-brand href./index.html> span classnavbar-title>All Your Bayes/span> /a> /div> div idquarto-search class titleSearch>/div> button classnavbar-toggler typebutton data-bs-togglecollapse data-bs-target#navbarCollapse aria-controlsnavbarCollapse rolemenu aria-expandedfalse aria-labelToggle navigation onclickif (window.quartoToggleHeadroom) { window.quartoToggleHeadroom(); }> span classnavbar-toggler-icon>/span>/button> div classcollapse navbar-collapse idnavbarCollapse> ul classnavbar-nav navbar-nav-scroll ms-auto> li classnav-item> a classnav-link href./about.html> span classmenu-text>About/span>/a> /li> li classnav-item compact> a classnav-link hrefhttps://www.github.com/DomDF> i classbi bi-github roleimg>/i> span classmenu-text>/span>/a> /li> li classnav-item compact> a classnav-link hrefhttps://www.twitter.com/Domenic_DF> i classbi bi-twitter roleimg>/i> span classmenu-text>/span>/a> /li> li classnav-item compact> a classnav-link href./index.xml> i classbi bi-rss roleimg>/i> span classmenu-text>/span>/a> /li> /ul> /div> !-- /navcollapse --> div classquarto-navbar-tools> a href classquarto-color-scheme-toggle quarto-navigation-tool px-1 onclickwindow.quartoToggleColorScheme(); return false; titleToggle dark mode>i classbi>/i>/a>/div> /div> !-- /container-fluid --> /nav>/header>!-- content -->header idtitle-block-header classquarto-title-block default page-columns page-full> div classquarto-title-banner page-columns page-full> div classquarto-title column-page-left> h1 classtitle>a hrefhttps://www.allyourbayes.com/about.html>Dom Di Francesco, PhD, CEng/a>/h1> p classsubtitle lead>thoughts on risk, uncertainty, statistics and decisions/p> /div> /div> div classquarto-title-meta column-page-left> /div> /header>div idquarto-content classquarto-container page-columns page-rows-contents page-layout-full page-navbar>!-- sidebar -->!-- margin-sidebar --> div idquarto-margin-sidebar classsidebar margin-sidebar> h5 classquarto-listing-category-title>Categories/h5>div classquarto-listing-category category-default>div classcategory data-category>All span classquarto-category-count>(9)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryYW5hbHlzaXM>analysis span classquarto-category-count>(3)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryQmF5ZXM>Bayes span classquarto-category-count>(7)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryRGVjaXNpb25z>Decisions span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryZGVjaXNpb25z>decisions span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryRG9ncw>Dogs span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryRW5naW5lZXJpbmc>Engineering span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryRm9vdGJhbGw>Football span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryZm9vdGJhbGw>football span classquarto-category-count>(3)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryZ2F1c3NpYW4lMjBwcm9jZXNz>gaussian process span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categorySnVsaWE>Julia span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryTG9naXN0aWMlMjBSZWdyZXNzaW9u>Logistic Regression span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryTUNNQw>MCMC span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categorybXVsdGktbGV2ZWwlMjBtb2RlbGxpbmc>multi-level modelling span classquarto-category-count>(2)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categorybmV3cw>news span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categorycGFydGlhbCUyMHBvb2xpbmc>partial pooling span classquarto-category-count>(2)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryUG9kY2FzdA>Podcast span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryUg>R span classquarto-category-count>(2)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryU2hpbnk>Shiny span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryU3Rhbg>Stan span classquarto-category-count>(5)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categorydW5jZXJ0YWludHk>uncertainty span classquarto-category-count>(4)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryVmFsdWUlMjBvZiUyMEluZm9ybWF0aW9u>Value of Information span classquarto-category-count>(1)/span>/div>div classcategory data-categoryeGc>xg span classquarto-category-count>(2)/span>/div>/div>/div>!-- main -->main classcontent quarto-banner-title-block column-page-left idquarto-document-content>div classquarto-listing quarto-listing-container-default idlisting-listing>div classlist quarto-listing-default>div classquarto-post image-right data-index0 data-categoriesUG9kY2FzdCUyQ0JheWVzJTJDRW5naW5lZXJpbmclMkNEb2dz data-listing-date-sort1706140800000 data-listing-file-modified-sort1745848834945 data-listing-date-modified-sortNaN data-listing-reading-time-sort1 data-listing-word-count-sort70>div classthumbnail>a href./posts/Turing_Podcast/index.html classno-external>img loadinglazy src./posts/Turing_Podcast/alan_turing.png classthumbnail-image>/a>/div>div classbody>h3 classno-anchor listing-title>a href./posts/Turing_Podcast/index.html classno-external>The Turing Podcast/a>/h3>div classlisting-subtitle>a href./posts/Turing_Podcast/index.html classno-external>My coffee pod episode/a>/div>div classlisting-categories>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(UG9kY2FzdA); return false;>Podcast/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(QmF5ZXM); return false;>Bayes/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(RW5naW5lZXJpbmc); return false;>Engineering/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(RG9ncw); return false;>Dogs/div>/div>div classdelink listing-description>a href./posts/Turing_Podcast/index.html classno-external>Last year, I participated in an episode of the Alan Turing Institute’s Coffee Pod podcast. It was hosted by my friend Bea and we talked about my background in engineering…/a>/div>/div>div classmetadata>a href./posts/Turing_Podcast/index.html classno-external>div classlisting-date>Jan 25, 2024/div>div classlisting-author>Domenic Di Francesco/div>/a>/div>/div>div classquarto-post image-right data-index1 data-categoriesRm9vdGJhbGwlMkNSJTJDU2hpbnk data-listing-date-sort1679356800000 data-listing-file-modified-sort1754324737579 data-listing-date-modified-sortNaN data-listing-reading-time-sort1 data-listing-word-count-sort121>div classthumbnail>a href./posts/Who_Am_I/index.html classno-external>img loadinglazy src./posts/Who_Am_I/game.png classthumbnail-image>/a>/div>div classbody>h3 classno-anchor listing-title>a href./posts/Who_Am_I/index.html classno-external>Who Am I?/a>/h3>div classlisting-subtitle>a href./posts/Who_Am_I/index.html classno-external>A football trivia guessing game/a>/div>div classlisting-categories>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(Rm9vdGJhbGw); return false;>Football/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(Ug); return false;>R/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(U2hpbnk); return false;>Shiny/div>/div>div classdelink listing-description>a href./posts/Who_Am_I/index.html classno-external>At a previous job, my colleagues and I would occasionally create football (soccer) quizzes for each other. The game I used to send them would involve me sequentially sending…code>/code>/a>/div>/div>div classmetadata>a href./posts/Who_Am_I/index.html classno-external>div classlisting-date>Mar 21, 2023/div>div classlisting-author>Domenic Di Francesco/div>/a>/div>/div>div classquarto-post image-right data-index2 data-categoriesQmF5ZXMlMkNTdGFuJTJDSnVsaWElMkNEZWNpc2lvbnMlMkNWYWx1ZSUyMG9mJTIwSW5mb3JtYXRpb24 data-listing-date-sort1674432000000 data-listing-file-modified-sort1745848834929 data-listing-date-modified-sortNaN data-listing-reading-time-sort1 data-listing-word-count-sort169>div classthumbnail>a href./posts/Bayes@Lund/index.html classno-external>img loadinglazy src./posts/Bayes@Lund/VoPI.png classthumbnail-image>/a>/div>div classbody>h3 classno-anchor listing-title>a href./posts/Bayes@Lund/index.html classno-external>Bayes@Lund2023/a>/h3>div classlisting-subtitle>a href./posts/Bayes@Lund/index.html classno-external>/a>/div>div classlisting-categories>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(QmF5ZXM); return false;>Bayes/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(U3Rhbg); return false;>Stan/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(SnVsaWE); return false;>Julia/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(RGVjaXNpb25z); return false;>Decisions/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(VmFsdWUlMjBvZiUyMEluZm9ybWF0aW9u); return false;>Value of Information/div>/div>div classdelink listing-description>a href./posts/Bayes@Lund/index.html classno-external>A recording of my presentation on value of information analysis at the Bayes@Lund2023 conference./a>/div>/div>div classmetadata>a href./posts/Bayes@Lund/index.html classno-external>div classlisting-date>Jan 23, 2023/div>div classlisting-author>Domenic Di Francesco/div>/a>/div>/div>div classquarto-post image-right data-index3 data-categoriesbmV3cw data-listing-date-sort1674432000000 data-listing-file-modified-sort1745848834973 data-listing-date-modified-sortNaN data-listing-reading-time-sort1 data-listing-word-count-sort20>div classthumbnail>a href./posts/welcome/index.html classno-external>div classlisting-item-img-placeholder card-img-top > /div>/a>/div>div classbody>h3 classno-anchor listing-title>a href./posts/welcome/index.html classno-external>All Your Bayes 2.0/a>/h3>div classlisting-subtitle>a href./posts/welcome/index.html classno-external>/a>/div>div classlisting-categories>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(bmV3cw); return false;>news/div>/div>div classdelink listing-description>a href./posts/welcome/index.html classno-external>I’ve recreated this site in quarto, and plan on writing more jargon-free articles on risk, uncertainty, decisions, statistics, and football./a>/div>/div>div classmetadata>a href./posts/welcome/index.html classno-external>div classlisting-date>Jan 23, 2023/div>/a>/div>/div>div classquarto-post image-right data-index4 data-categoriesZm9vdGJhbGwlMkNhbmFseXNpcyUyQ1N0YW4lMkN1bmNlcnRhaW50eSUyQ0JheWVzJTJDZ2F1c3NpYW4lMjBwcm9jZXNz data-listing-date-sort1674086400000 data-listing-file-modified-sort1745848834965 data-listing-date-modified-sortNaN data-listing-reading-time-sort25 data-listing-word-count-sort4841>div classthumbnail>a href./posts/player_form/index.html classno-external>img loadinglazy src./posts/player_form/plot.png classthumbnail-image>/a>/div>div classbody>h3 classno-anchor listing-title>a href./posts/player_form/index.html classno-external>Player Form. Part 1/a>/h3>div classlisting-subtitle>a href./posts/player_form/index.html classno-external>An Overview/a>/div>div classlisting-categories>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(Zm9vdGJhbGw); return false;>football/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(YW5hbHlzaXM); return false;>analysis/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(U3Rhbg); return false;>Stan/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(dW5jZXJ0YWludHk); return false;>uncertainty/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(QmF5ZXM); return false;>Bayes/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(Z2F1c3NpYW4lMjBwcm9jZXNz); return false;>gaussian process/div>/div>div classdelink listing-description>a href./posts/player_form/index.html classno-external>When is a player strong>in form/strong> (over performing, or enjoying a hot streak) and how long does this last? If there is such an effect, I suspect it will be a result of some…/a>/div>/div>div classmetadata>a href./posts/player_form/index.html classno-external>div classlisting-date>Jan 19, 2023/div>div classlisting-author>Domenic Di Francesco/div>/a>/div>/div>div classquarto-post image-right data-index5 data-categoriesZm9vdGJhbGwlMkNhbmFseXNpcyUyQ3hnJTJDU3RhbiUyQ3VuY2VydGFpbnR5JTJDQmF5ZXMlMkNtdWx0aS1sZXZlbCUyMG1vZGVsbGluZyUyQ3BhcnRpYWwlMjBwb29saW5n data-listing-date-sort1609977600000 data-listing-file-modified-sort1745848835137 data-listing-date-modified-sortNaN data-listing-reading-time-sort18 data-listing-word-count-sort3498>div classthumbnail>a href./posts/xg_pt2/index.html classno-external>img loadinglazy src./posts/xg_pt2/xg2.png classthumbnail-image>/a>/div>div classbody>h3 classno-anchor listing-title>a href./posts/xg_pt2/index.html classno-external>Uncertainty in xG. Part 2/a>/h3>div classlisting-subtitle>a href./posts/xg_pt2/index.html classno-external>Partially (Optimally) Pooling Hierarchical Data/a>/div>div classlisting-categories>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(Zm9vdGJhbGw); return false;>football/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(YW5hbHlzaXM); return false;>analysis/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(eGc); return false;>xg/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(U3Rhbg); return false;>Stan/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(dW5jZXJ0YWludHk); return false;>uncertainty/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(QmF5ZXM); return false;>Bayes/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(bXVsdGktbGV2ZWwlMjBtb2RlbGxpbmc); return false;>multi-level modelling/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(cGFydGlhbCUyMHBvb2xpbmc); return false;>partial pooling/div>/div>div classdelink listing-description>a href./posts/xg_pt2/index.html classno-external>This is part 2 of an article on fitting a Bayesian partial pooling model to predict expected goals. It has the benefits of (a) quantifying em>aleatory and epistemic/em> uncertainty…/a>/div>/div>div classmetadata>a href./posts/xg_pt2/index.html classno-external>div classlisting-date>Jan 7, 2021/div>div classlisting-author>Domenic Di Francesco/div>/a>/div>/div>div classquarto-post image-right data-index6 data-categoriesZm9vdGJhbGwlMkNhbmFseXNpcyUyQ3hnJTJDU3RhbiUyQ3VuY2VydGFpbnR5JTJDQmF5ZXMlMkNtdWx0aS1sZXZlbCUyMG1vZGVsbGluZyUyQ3BhcnRpYWwlMjBwb29saW5n data-listing-date-sort1607558400000 data-listing-file-modified-sort1745848834979 data-listing-date-modified-sortNaN data-listing-reading-time-sort22 data-listing-word-count-sort4293>div classthumbnail>a href./posts/xg_pt1/index.html classno-external>img loadinglazy src./posts/xg_pt1/xg1.png classthumbnail-image>/a>/div>div classbody>h3 classno-anchor listing-title>a href./posts/xg_pt1/index.html classno-external>Uncertainty in xG. Part 1/a>/h3>div classlisting-subtitle>a href./posts/xg_pt1/index.html classno-external>An Overview/a>/div>div classlisting-categories>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(Zm9vdGJhbGw); return false;>football/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(YW5hbHlzaXM); return false;>analysis/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(eGc); return false;>xg/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(U3Rhbg); return false;>Stan/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(dW5jZXJ0YWludHk); return false;>uncertainty/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(QmF5ZXM); return false;>Bayes/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(bXVsdGktbGV2ZWwlMjBtb2RlbGxpbmc); return false;>multi-level modelling/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(cGFydGlhbCUyMHBvb2xpbmc); return false;>partial pooling/div>/div>div classdelink listing-description>a href./posts/xg_pt1/index.html classno-external>The Expected Goals (xG) metric is now widely recognised as numerical measure of the em>quality/em> of a goal scoring opportunity in a football (soccer) match. In this article we…/a>/div>/div>div classmetadata>a href./posts/xg_pt1/index.html classno-external>div classlisting-date>Dec 10, 2020/div>div classlisting-author>Domenic Di Francesco/div>/a>/div>/div>div classquarto-post image-right data-index7 data-categoriesQmF5ZXMlMkN1bmNlcnRhaW50eSUyQ2RlY2lzaW9ucw data-listing-date-sort1585008000000 data-listing-file-modified-sort1745848834963 data-listing-date-modified-sortNaN data-listing-reading-time-sort8 data-listing-word-count-sort1494>div classthumbnail>a href./posts/Why_Bayes/index.html classno-external>img loadinglazy src./posts/Why_Bayes/gp.png classthumbnail-image>/a>/div>div classbody>h3 classno-anchor listing-title>a href./posts/Why_Bayes/index.html classno-external>Why be Bayesian?/a>/h3>div classlisting-subtitle>a href./posts/Why_Bayes/index.html classno-external>/a>/div>div classlisting-categories>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(QmF5ZXM); return false;>Bayes/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(dW5jZXJ0YWludHk); return false;>uncertainty/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(ZGVjaXNpb25z); return false;>decisions/div>/div>div classdelink listing-description>a href./posts/Why_Bayes/index.html classno-external>This post is intended to be a high-level discussion of the merits and challenges of applied Bayesian statistics. It is intended to help the reader answer: em>Is it worth me…/em>em>/em>/a>/div>/div>div classmetadata>a href./posts/Why_Bayes/index.html classno-external>div classlisting-date>Mar 24, 2020/div>div classlisting-author>Domenic Di Francesco/div>/a>/div>/div>div classquarto-post image-right data-index8 data-categoriesQmF5ZXMlMkNMb2dpc3RpYyUyMFJlZ3Jlc3Npb24lMkNNQ01DJTJDU3RhbiUyQ1I data-listing-date-sort1581724800000 data-listing-file-modified-sort1745848834935 data-listing-date-modified-sortNaN data-listing-reading-time-sort20 data-listing-word-count-sort3906>div classthumbnail>a href./posts/Logistic_Bayes/index.html classno-external>img loadinglazy src./posts/Logistic_Bayes/logistic_priors.png classthumbnail-image>/a>/div>div classbody>h3 classno-anchor listing-title>a href./posts/Logistic_Bayes/index.html classno-external>Bayesian Logistic Regression with Stan/a>/h3>div classlisting-subtitle>a href./posts/Logistic_Bayes/index.html classno-external>/a>/div>div classlisting-categories>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(QmF5ZXM); return false;>Bayes/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(TG9naXN0aWMlMjBSZWdyZXNzaW9u); return false;>Logistic Regression/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(TUNNQw); return false;>MCMC/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(U3Rhbg); return false;>Stan/div>div classlisting-category onclickwindow.quartoListingCategory(Ug); return false;>R/div>/div>div classdelink listing-description>a href./posts/Logistic_Bayes/index.html classno-external>Logistic regression is a popular statistical model for making predictions on outcomes between zero and one - like probabilities. 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